CFB · 2026 betting profile
Virginia Cavaliers
4-2 straight up · 3-3 ATS · 3-3 over-under · #64 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 12 PMThe CW
at
24SMU Mustangs
24SMU MustangsSpreadVirginia +9.5
Total51.5
Moneyline+275
Upcoming lines
Sat Oct 17, 12 PM
Virginia4-2
24SMU4-1+9.5-9.5o51.5u51.5+275-360SMU -8.5moved 1 to SMUThe CWOpen SMU -8.5 · moved 1 to SMUThe CWFri Oct 23, 7 PM
Duke4-1Virginia4-2No line yet–ESPNESPN UnlimitedESPNESPN Unlimited
Virginia4-224SMU4-1+9.5-9.5o51.5u51.5+275-360SMU -8.5moved 1 to SMUThe CWOpen SMU -8.5 · moved 1 to SMUThe CWFri Oct 23, 7 PMDuke4-1Virginia4-2No line yet–ESPNESPN UnlimitedESPNESPN UnlimitedOpen = the line when most books posted it for this week (Sunday night). A dash means we don't have that number.
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | -2.5 |
| Home | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | +9.8 |
| Road | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -32.5 |
| Favorite | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | -2.5 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -7.2 |
| Non-conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +2.2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -7.4 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | PK |
| Home | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | -1.8 |
| Road | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -3.8 |
| Non-conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +3.8 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +1.7 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | vs Syracuse | W 28-25 | -14 | L -11 | 49.5 | O +3.5 |
| Oct 3 | at Florida State | L 7-38 | -1.5 | L -32.5 | 51.5 | U -6.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Delaware | W 42-3 | -19.5 | W +19.5 | 52.5 | U -7.5 |
| Sep 19 | vs West Virginia | L 27-38 | -10.5 | L -21.5 | 51.5 | O +13.5 |
| Sep 11 | vs Norfolk State Spartans | W 59-3 | -47.5 | W +8.5 | 56.5 | O +5.5 |
| Aug 29 | vs NC State | W 34-8 | -4 | W +22 | 50.5 | U -8.5 |
Close is Virginia's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | 3-3 | 50% | -2.5 |
| 2025 | 11-3 | 9-5 | 64% | Small sample | 5-9 | 36% | +4.9 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 6-4 | 60% | Small sample | 4-6 | 40% | -1.8 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 8-4 | 67% | Small sample | 9-2-1 | 82% | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 40% | Small sample | 2-7-1 | 22% | -6.7 |
| 2021 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 58% | Small sample | 4-8 | 33% | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 7-3 | 70% | Small sample | 7-3 | 70% | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 9-5 | 7-6-1 | 54% | Small sample | 8-6 | 57% | +1.4 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.