CFB · 2026 betting profile
SMU Mustangs
4-1 straight up · 1-3-1 ATS · 2-3 over-under · #52 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 12 PMThe CW
vs
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia CavaliersSpreadSMU -9.5
Total51.5
Moneyline-360
Upcoming lines
Sat Oct 17, 12 PM
Virginia4-2
24SMU4-1+9.5-9.5o51.5u51.5+275-360SMU -8.5moved 1 to SMUThe CWOpen SMU -8.5 · moved 1 to SMUThe CWSat Oct 24, 12 PM
California3-324SMU4-1No line yet–The CWThe CW
Virginia4-224SMU4-1+9.5-9.5o51.5u51.5+275-360SMU -8.5moved 1 to SMUThe CWOpen SMU -8.5 · moved 1 to SMUThe CWSat Oct 24, 12 PMCalifornia3-324SMU4-1No line yet–The CWThe CWOpen = the line when most books posted it for this week (Sunday night). A dash means we don't have that number.
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 1-3-1 | 25% | Small sample | -5.3 |
| Home | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Road | 0-1-1 | 0% | Small sample | -3.5 |
| Favorite | 1-2-1 | 33% | Small sample | -4.9 |
| Underdog | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -7 |
| Conference | 0-2-1 | 0% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Non-conference | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -3.5 |
| Last 5 | 1-3-1 | 25% | Small sample | -5.3 |
5 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | +0.5 |
| Home | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -3.5 |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +6.5 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -0.5 |
| Non-conference | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | +0.5 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | vs Boston College | W 25-16 | -21.5 | L -12.5 | 55.5 | U -14.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Missouri State | W 34-24 | -30.5 | L -20.5 | 60.5 | U -2.5 |
| Sep 19 | at Louisville | L 31-41 | +3 | L -7 | 57.5 | O +14.5 |
| Sep 12 | vs UC Davis Aggies | W 56-10 | -32.5 | W +13.5 | 59.5 | O +6.5 |
| Sep 7 | at Florida State | W 27-24 | -3 | P PK | 52.5 | U -1.5 |
Close is SMU's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-1 | 1-3-1 | 25% | Small sample | 2-3 | 40% | -5.3 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-7 | 46% | Small sample | 4-9 | 31% | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 11-3 | 6-6 | 50% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 11-3 | 8-6 | 57% | Small sample | 6-8 | 43% | +7.2 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 5-8 | 38% | Small sample | 5-8 | 38% | -3.3 |
| 2021 | 8-4 | 6-6 | 50% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 7-3 | 5-5 | 50% | Small sample | 5-5 | 50% | -5.3 |
| 2019 | 10-3 | 7-5-1 | 58% | Small sample | 7-5-1 | 58% | +2.7 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.