CFB · 2026 betting profile
Liberty Flames
5-1 straight up · 4-2 ATS · 2-4 over-under · #41 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameThu Oct 22, 7 PMCBSSN
at
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State OwlsSpreadLiberty -8.5
Total47.5
Moneyline-345
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | +5.8 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +4.2 |
| Road | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +7.5 |
| Favorite | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +7.2 |
| Underdog | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -1 |
| Conference | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +13.8 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +1.9 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +7.2 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | -5.2 |
| Home | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -2.2 |
| Road | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -8.2 |
| Conference | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -11 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | -2.2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -2.7 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | vs Sam Houston | W 35-3 | -13.5 | W +18.5 | 52.5 | U -14.5 |
| Oct 2 | at Delaware | W 30-14 | -7 | W +9 | 51.5 | U -7.5 |
| Sep 24 | at Coastal Carolina | W 34-17 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 50.5 | O +0.5 |
| Sep 19 | vs Ball State | W 51-15 | -14.5 | W +21.5 | 49.5 | O +16.5 |
| Sep 12 | vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | W 24-23 | -28.5 | L -27.5 | 55.5 | U -8.5 |
| Sep 5 | at James Madison | L 13-20 | +6 | L -1 | 50.5 | U -17.5 |
Close is Liberty's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | 2-4 | 33% | +5.8 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 3-9 | 25% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | -4.6 |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 3-9 | 25% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | -8.9 |
| 2023 | 13-1 | 9-5 | 64% | Small sample | 8-6 | 57% | +4 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 6-7 | 46% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | -3.2 |
| 2021 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 5-8 | 38% | -2.4 |
| 2020 | 10-1 | 9-2 | 82% | Small sample | 7-4 | 64% | +7.8 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | +3.1 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.