Closing number
Source: DraftKings.
NE 29, BUF 26. NE covered by 10, over by 5.5.
Our crowd
Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and picks our users log.
Public cappers
None of the cappers we track have picked this one yet.
Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. User picks are anonymous: no names, and private picks stay private.
Common opponents
No common opponents yet this season.
Last season (2025): 12 common opponents
| Opponent |  Patriots |  Bills |
|---|---|---|
 Falcons | W 24-23 home +1 · -5.5 Didn't cover | L 14-24 away -10 · -3.5 Didn't cover |
 Ravens | W 28-24 away +4 · +3.5 Covered | W 41-40 home +1 · +1.5 Covered |
 Panthers | W 42-13 home +29 · -3 Covered | W 40-9 away +31 · -7.5 Covered |
 Bengals | W 26-20 away +6 · -7.5 Didn't cover | W 39-34 home +5 · -6 Didn't cover |
 Browns | W 32-13 home +19 · -6.5 Covered | W 23-20 away +3 · -10.5 Didn't cover |
 Broncos | W 10-7 away +3 · -3.5 Didn't cover | L 30-33 away -3 · +1.5 Didn't cover |
 Texans | W 28-16 home +12 · -3 Covered | L 19-23 away -4 · -4.5 Didn't cover |
 Dolphins | W 33-27 away +6 · +2.5 Covered | W 31-21 home +10 · -11.5 Didn't cover |
W 38-10 home +28 · -14.5 Covered | L 13-30 away -17 · -8.5 Didn't cover | |
 Saints | W 25-19 away +6 · -3.5 Covered | W 31-19 home +12 · -14.5 Didn't cover |
 Jets | W 27-14 home +13 · -12.5 Covered | W 30-10 away +20 · -5.5 Covered |
W 42-10 away +32 · -12.5 Covered | W 35-8 home +27 · -13.5 Covered | |
 Steelers | L 14-21 home -7 · +1.5 Didn't cover | W 26-7 away +19 · -3 Covered |
 Buccaneers | W 28-23 away +5 · +2.5 Covered | W 44-32 home +12 · -6.5 Covered |
Against 12 common opponents: Patriots won by 11.2 on average, 10-4 against the spread. Bills won by 7.6 on average, 6-8 against the spread.
Betting form, 2026 to date
New England PWLWW
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-1-1 75%Small sample | 2-3 40% overSmall sample |
| Road | 1-1-1 50%Small sample | 1-2 33% overSmall sample |
| As underdog | 1-1-1 50%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 3-1-1 75%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Buffalo WWWLW
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 80%Small sample | 4-1 80% overSmall sample |
| Home | 2-1 67%Small sample | 2-1 67% overSmall sample |
| As favorite | 3-1 75%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 4-1 80%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games); over-under vs the closing total
Head to head since 2019
| Date | Score | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF -7 | NE covered | 49.5 | Over |
| Dec 14, 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | BUF -2.5 | BUF covered | 49.5 | Over |
| Oct 5, 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF -7.5 | NE covered | 48.5 | Under |
| Jan 5, 2025 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF -3.5 | NE covered | 36.5 | Over |
| Dec 22, 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF -14.5 | NE covered | 47.5 | Under |
| Dec 31, 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF -15 | NE covered | 40 | Over |
| Oct 22, 2023 | BUF 25, NE 29 | BUF -7.5 | NE covered | 41 | Over |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NE 23, BUF 35 | BUF -8 | BUF covered | 44 | Over |
| Dec 1, 2022 | BUF 24, NE 10 | BUF -4 | BUF covered | 43.5 | Under |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NE 17, BUF 47 | BUF -4 | BUF covered | 42.5 | Over |
| Dec 26, 2021 | BUF 33, NE 21 | NE -1 | BUF covered | 43.5 | Over |
| Dec 6, 2021 | NE 14, BUF 10 | BUF -3 | NE covered | 39.5 | Under |
| Dec 28, 2020 | BUF 38, NE 9 | BUF -7 | BUF covered | 47 | Push |
| Nov 1, 2020 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF -4 | NE covered | 41 | Over |
| Dec 21, 2019 | BUF 17, NE 24 | NE -6.5 | NE covered | 37.5 | Over |
| Sep 29, 2019 | NE 16, BUF 10 | NE -7 | BUF covered | 27.5 | Under |
New England 9-7 ATS in these meetings. 16 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over.
NFL, 2019-2025 + 2026 so far · regular season + postseason · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games); totals vs the closing total
Side by side
 NE | BUF  | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over-under | 4-1 |
| +4.2 | Avg cover margin | +1.1 |
| 22.0 | Points per game | 32.8 |
| 18.8 | Points allowed | 28.2 |
| 5.99 | Yards per play | 6.91 |
| 382.0 | Yards per game | 407.8 |
| 4.20 | Rush yards per carry | 5.40 |
| 65.6 | Completion % | 65.9 |
| 37.5 | Third down % | 50.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | -3 |
| 11 | Sacks allowed | 10 |
| 60.0 | Penalty yards per game | 72.4 |
Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.