OfftheNumber
at
4-2, 2-4 ATS
Sat Oct 17 · 12 PMESPNESPN UnlimitedTiger Stadium (LA)

The number

Spread
MSST +15.5 -110
LSU -15.5 -110
Open LSU -11 moved 4.5
Fair, no vig: MSST -100 / LSU -100 (hold 4.8%)
Best: MSST +16 -110 at Fanatics; LSU -15 -114 at BetRivers
Total
Over 57 -109
Under 57 -113
Fair, no vig: O +102 / U -102 (hold 5.2%)
Best: O 56.5 -110 at Hard Rock Bet; U 57.5 -109 at Caesars
Moneyline
MSST +500
LSU -715
Fair, no vig: MSST +526 / LSU -526 (hold 4.4%)
Best: MSST +500 at FanDuel; LSU -650 at BetMGM

Updated Fri 2:40 PM ET Consensus of 10 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.

Every book (10)
BookMSSTLSUOverUnderMSST MLLSU ML
DraftKings+15.5-108-15.5-112o57.5-105u57.5-115+500-700
FanDuel+15.5-110-15.5-110o56.5-115u56.5-105+500-720
BetMGM+15.5-108-15.5-110o57.5-108u57.5-112+500-650
Caesars+15.5-114-15.5-106o57.5-110u57.5-109+500-750
theScore Bet+15.5-110-15.5-110o57.5-105u57.5-115+475-750
BetRivers+15-109-15-114o57-109u57-114+475-715
Fanatics+16-110-16-110o57-110u57-110+500-700
Hard Rock Bet+15.5-110-15.5-110o56.5-110u56.5-110+500-700
Bally Bet+15.5-113-15.5-108o57-108u57-113+500-715
betPARX+15.5-113-15.5-108o57-108u57-113+500-715

Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.

Line movement

Key numbers crossed: 14 (LSU -11 to LSU -15.5). In football, moving through 3 or 7 changes a bet's value far more than other half points.

-10-12-14-16key 10key 14OpenNow
LSU line, game-week open to now. Dashed lines are key numbers.
5556575859OpenNow
Total, game-week open to now.

Betting form, 2026

Mississippi State WWWWL

ATSTotals
All games4-1 80%Small sample3-2 60% overSmall sample
Road2-0 100%Small sample1-1 50% overSmall sample
As underdog1-1 50%Small sample
Last 54-1 80%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

LSU WLLWLL

ATSTotals
All games2-4 33%Small sample4-2 67% overSmall sample
Home2-2 50%Small sample3-1 75% overSmall sample
As favorite2-4 33%Small sample
Last 51-4 20%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Sep 16, 2023LSU 41, MSST 14LSU -9.5LSU covered54Over
Sep 17, 2022MSST 16, LSU 31MSST -3LSU covered52.5Under
Sep 25, 2021LSU 28, MSST 25LSU -1.5LSU covered55Under
Sep 26, 2020MSST 44, LSU 3457Over
Oct 19, 2019LSU 36, MSST 13LSU -18LSU covered56.5Under

Mississippi State 0-4 ATS in these meetings. 5 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.

Side by side

MSSTLSU
4-1Record4-2
4-1Against the spread2-4
3-2Over-under4-2
+6Avg cover margin+3.7
39.0Points per game42.0
28.0Points allowed18.5
6.60Yards per play6.35
487.0Yards per game524.8
4.80Rush yards per carry4.70
65.7Completion %64.7
48.4Third down %52.2
+0Turnover margin+0
13Sacks allowed10
69.8Penalty yards per game51.0

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

What the public cappers like

Spread
0 Mississippi St1 LSU
LSU -141
Big Cat 1u*Line -14 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Posted Oct 15 4:01 PM ET · Record 94-66-4 · Original post
Total
No picks
Moneyline
No picks

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

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