OfftheNumber
4-2, 4-2 ATS
at
4-1, 3-2 ATS
Sat Oct 17 · 3:30 PMCBSSNFalcon Stadium

The number

Spread
UNLV +1.5 -114
AF -1.5 -108
Open UNLV -1.5 moved 3
Fair, no vig: UNLV -103 / AF +103 (hold 5.2%)
Best: UNLV +1.5 -110 at DraftKings; AF +0.5 -109 at betPARX
Total
Over 48.5 -108
Under 48.5 -113
Fair, no vig: O +102 / U -102 (hold 5.0%)
Best: O 47.5 -115 at DraftKings; U 48.5 -110 at Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
UNLV -110
AF -112
Fair, no vig: UNLV +101 / AF -101 (hold 5.2%)
Best: UNLV -105 at DraftKings; AF -110 at theScore Bet

Updated Fri 2:40 PM ET Consensus of 9 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.

Every book (9)
BookUNLVAFOverUnderUNLV MLAF ML
DraftKings+1.5-110-1.5-110o47.5-115u47.5-105-105-115
FanDuel+1.5-114-1.5-106o48.5-105u48.5-115-106-113
BetMGM+1-108-1-110o47.5-115u47.5-105-105-112
Caesars+1.5-112-1.5-108o48-110u48-109-108-111
theScore Bet+1.5-115-1.5-105o48.5-105u48.5-115-110-110
BetRivers+0.5-112-0.5-112o48.5-110u48.5-113-112-112
Hard Rock Bet+1.5-115-1.5-110o48.5-110u48.5-110-110-110
Bally Bet-0.5-110+0.5-109o48.5-108u48.5-112-112-112
betPARX-0.5-110+0.5-109o48.5-108u48.5-112-112-112

Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.

Line movement

Key numbers crossed: none (UNLV -1.5 to AF -1.5).

+3+2+1PK-1-2-3-4key 3OpenNow
AF line, game-week open to now. Dashed lines are key numbers.
47484950OpenNow
Total, game-week open to now.

Betting form, 2026

UNLV LWLWWW

ATSTotals
All games4-2 67%Small sample1-5 17% overSmall sample
Road2-1 67%Small sample0-3 0% overSmall sample
As underdog1-0 100%Small sample
Last 54-1 80%Small sample

6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Air Force WLLWW

ATSTotals
All games3-2 60%Small sample2-3 40% overSmall sample
Home2-1 67%Small sample1-2 33% overSmall sample
As favorite3-1 75%Small sample
Last 53-2 60%Small sample

5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.

Common opponents

Same opponents, side by side: how each team did, by how much, and whether they covered. Margin is points scored minus allowed; the line is that team's closing spread.

Opponent UNLV Air Force
North Dakota St
W 13-7 home
+6 · +3 Covered
L 32-38 home
-6 · +1.5 Didn't cover

Against 1 common opponent: UNLV won by 6.0 on average, 1-0 against the spread. Air Force lost by 6.0 on average, 0-1 against the spread.

Last season (2025): 6 common opponents
Opponent UNLV Air Force
Boise St
L 31-56 away
-25 · +13.5 Didn't cover
L 37-49 home
-12 · +11.5 Didn't cover
L 21-38 away
-17 · +6 Didn't cover
-
Colorado St
W 42-10 away
+32 · -4.5 Covered
W 42-21 away
+21 · no line
Hawai'i
W 38-10 home
+28 · -2.5 Covered
L 35-44 home
-9 · -6.5 Didn't cover
New Mexico
L 35-40 home
-5 · -4.5 Didn't cover
L 3-20 home
-17 · +3.5 Didn't cover
Utah St
W 29-26 home
+3 · -4.5 Didn't cover
L 30-49 away
-19 · -3.5 Didn't cover
Wyoming
W 31-17 away
+14 · -4.5 Covered
W 24-21 home
+3 · -3.5 Didn't cover

Against 6 common opponents: UNLV won by 4.3 on average, 3-4 against the spread. Air Force lost by 5.5 on average, 0-5 against the spread.

Head to head since 2019

DateScoreCloseATSTotalO-U
Oct 11, 2025AF 48, UNLV 51UNLV -7.5AF covered66.5Over
Nov 18, 2023UNLV 31, AF 27AF -3UNLV covered46.5Over
Oct 15, 2022AF 42, UNLV 7AF -10AF covered50Under
Nov 26, 2021UNLV 14, AF 48AF -18AF covered49.5Over

UNLV 1-3 ATS in these meetings. 4 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.

Side by side

UNLVAF
4-2Record4-1
4-2Against the spread3-2
1-5Over-under2-3
-1.5Avg cover margin+2.6
23.0Points per game28.8
20.8Points allowed17.4
5.33Yards per play5.42
369.7Yards per game400.0
4.40Rush yards per carry5.10
56.1Completion %47.9
37.4Third down %53.8
+6Turnover margin+1
16Sacks allowed3
71.5Penalty yards per game47.8

Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.

What the public cappers like

Spread
0 UNLV1 Air Force
Air Force +1.51
Big Cat 1u*Line +1.5 · Price -110 (assumed, not posted) · 1u (units not given, 1u used) · Posted Oct 15 4:01 PM ET · Record 94-66-4 · Original post
Total
No picks
Moneyline
No picks

* price not posted, -110 assumed. Tracked from public posts, not endorsed. All public picks

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