The number
Updated Fri 3:40 PM ET Consensus of 10 US books: the line most books are dealing, with the middle price. Lines move. Check your book before you bet. Fair odds strip out the book's cut so you can see the price the market really implies.
Every book (10)
| Book | NU | MSU | Over | Under | NU ML | MSU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7-115 | +7-105 | o49.5-112 | u49.5-108 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5+100 | +7.5-122 | o49.5-114 | u49.5-106 | -295 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7-115 | +7-105 | o50.5-108 | u50.5-110 | -295 | +240 |
| Caesars | -7-110 | +7-110 | o49.5-108 | u49.5-112 | -295 | +240 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5+100 | +7.5-120 | o49.5-105 | u49.5-115 | -300 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -7.5-112 | +7.5-112 | o49.5-109 | u49.5-114 | -360 | +265 |
| Fanatics | -7-115 | +7-105 | o49.5-110 | u49.5-110 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5-110 | +7.5-110 | o49.5-110 | u49.5-110 | -350 | +260 |
| Bally Bet | -7.5-106 | +7.5-115 | o49.5-106 | u49.5-115 | -360 | +265 |
| betPARX | -7.5-106 | +7.5-115 | o49.5-106 | u49.5-115 | -360 | +265 |
Highlighted: the best number on each side. Legal US sportsbooks only.
Line movement
Key numbers crossed: 10 (NU -10.5 to NU -7.5). In football, moving through 3 or 7 changes a bet's value far more than other half points.
Injury report
From the Big Ten availability report (Thursday report). Posted Thu 8 PM ET. Schools file it by 8 PM ET the three nights before the game and 2 hours before kickoff. We check every 30 minutes. See the official report
Northwestern- Amare Jordan LB
- Callen Campbell DL
- Chris Petrucci TE
- Daniel Anderson RB
- David Anchondo OL
- Ezomo Oratokhai OL
- Jacob Miller OL
- Jason Reynolds II LB
- Josh Fussell DB
- Max Mohring LB
- Qayvier Johnson LB
- Luke Dehnicke TE
- Robert Fitzgerald DB
Damon Walters (DB), Migo Jackson (DL), Timi Oke (DB)
Michigan State- Cam Fancher QB
- Ben Murawski OL
- Brady Pretzlaff LB
- Caleb Wheatland LB
- Cam Edwards RB
- Charles Brantley CB
- Darrin Jones Jr. RB
- Jay Coyne FB
- Joe Caudill TE
- Jordan Hall LB
- Keshawn Williams CB
- Tre Bell CB
- Tristan Comer OL
- Tyran Chappell CB
- Charles Taplin WR
What changed and what the line did
- Line moved 0.5 pts toward NU (NU -7 to NU -7.5).
Lines from our snapshots of 10 legal US books. A move right after news doesn't prove the news caused it, but it's usually why.
Our crowd
Who's on what before kickoff, from the cappers we track and bets logged on our tracker.
Public cappers
None of the cappers we track have picked this one yet.
Tracker bettors
Shows up once 10 people log a bet on this game. Log yours
Want sportsbook bets % and money %? DraftKings posts theirs free: DK betting splits. We quote a few big games by hand when we can. Tracker counts are anonymous: no names, and private bets stay private.
Common opponents
No common opponents yet this season.
Last season (2025): 6 common opponents
| Opponent |  Northwestern |  Michigan St |
|---|---|---|
 Michigan | L 22-24 home -2 · +10.5 Covered | L 20-31 home -11 · +13.5 Covered |
 Minnesota | W 38-35 home +3 · -4.5 Didn't cover | L 20-23 away -3 · +5.5 Covered |
 Nebraska | L 21-28 away -7 · +7.5 Covered | L 27-38 away -11 · +12.5 Covered |
 Penn St | W 22-21 away +1 · +20.5 Covered | L 10-28 home -18 · +6.5 Didn't cover |
 UCLA | W 17-14 home +3 · -6.5 Didn't cover | L 13-38 home -25 · -6.5 Didn't cover |
 USC | L 17-38 away -21 · +14.5 Didn't cover | L 31-45 away -14 · +18.5 Covered |
Against 6 common opponents: Northwestern lost by 3.8 on average, 3-3 against the spread. Michigan St lost by 13.7 on average, 4-2 against the spread.
Betting form, 2026
Northwestern WWWWL
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 80%Small sample | 5-0 100% overSmall sample |
| Road | 1-0 100%Small sample | 1-0 100% overSmall sample |
| As favorite | 2-1 67%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 4-1 80%Small sample |
5 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Michigan State PWWLLW
| ATS | Totals | |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-2-1 60%Small sample | 2-4 33% overSmall sample |
| Home | 2-1-1 67%Small sample | 2-2 50% overSmall sample |
| As underdog | 2-2 50%Small sample | |
| Last 5 | 3-2 60%Small sample |
6 graded games this season. Small sample: read it as a hint, not a trend.
Head to head since 2019
| Date | Score | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2021 | MSU 38, NU 21 | NU -3 | MSU covered | 45 | Over |
| Nov 28, 2020 | NU 20, MSU 29 | NU -13.5 | MSU covered | 41 | Over |
| Sep 21, 2019 | MSU 31, NU 10 | MSU -7.5 | MSU covered | 40.5 | Over |
Northwestern 0-3 ATS in these meetings. 3 meetings is not a trend, and rosters turn over. Closing lines from ESPN's archive.
Side by side
| NU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-4 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2-1 |
| 5-0 | Over-under | 2-4 |
| +13.5 | Avg cover margin | -1.3 |
| 35.4 | Points per game | 21.3 |
| 16.2 | Points allowed | 25.7 |
| 6.88 | Yards per play | 4.55 |
| 437.4 | Yards per game | 311.7 |
| 5.20 | Rush yards per carry | 3.30 |
| 70.2 | Completion % | 66.5 |
| 40.4 | Third down % | 42.5 |
| +8 | Turnover margin | +2 |
| 9 | Sacks allowed | 19 |
| 61.8 | Penalty yards per game | 39.8 |
Season to date. Stats from ESPN. Points from final scores. Bold is the better number.